CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 07/03 - 06Z TUE 08/03 2005
ISSUED: 06/03 22:59Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the southwestern and central Mediterranean and the northern Aegean Sea and northwestern Turkey.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 UTC... a mid-/upper-level low pressure system is expected over Belarus with a trough extending westsouthwestward over the Po-Valley to the Balearics. A shortwave trough over southern Italy is expected to reach the northern Aegean and southeastern Balkans on Tuesday morning. The combination of strong shear and forcing may aid a few thunderstorms to develop ahead of it despite only marginal and shallow instability being present. Some thunderstorms are expected as well in a cold, slightly unstable air-mass over western parts of the Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

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